paul ryan to do since he's not going to be vice president. what they want paul ryan to do once he and mitt romney lose the election next week. i sort of can't believe it didn't get more attention yesterday afternoon. it is also the purest and most direct rebuttal of that campaign's own rather heroic efforts to project some super human confidence about how much they think they are going to win on tuesday. joining us is a man who is in the business of knowing who is going to win, nate silver, for "the new york times." he's the who author of "the signal and the the noise." thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> a lot of headlines say that since mitt romney is going to pennsylvania, that must mean that pennsylvania is in play. from the numbers, do you believe pennsylvania is in play? >> you had the list of 24 polls and none had romney ahead. some were done that had romney up a couple points there, but no public pollster has had him with a lead all year. it's not just that obama is up there, but it's a state where it's been stable and